Just revisiting David Ogilvy’s original book and tucked carefully at the end is a typically bold chapter, “I predict 13 changes.” Predicting is always interesting and I’m just curious about how we might view these predictions today, so here’s a quick recap of all 13. Did they come true? Might they still? Which will not? What do we think about these 26 years later?
1. Quality of research will generate more knowledge about what works and doesn’t in advertising.
2. There will be a renaissance in print advertising.
3. Advertising will contain more information and less hot air.
4. Billboards will be abolished. (Seems we’re still waiting on this.)
5. The clutter of commercials on tv and radio will be brought under control.
6. There will be a vast increase in the use of advertising by governments for the purposed of education, particularly health education.
7. Advertising will play a part in bringing the population explosion under control.
8. Candidates for political office will stop using dishonest advertising.
9. The quality and efficiency of advertising overseas will continue to improve - at an accelerating rate.
10. Several foreign agencies will open offices in the United States, and will prosper.
11. Multinational manufacturers will increase their market-shares all over the non-Communist world, and will market more of their brands internationally.
12. Direct-response advertising will cease to be a separate specialty, and will be folded into the ‘general’ agencies.
13. Ways will be found to produce effective television commercials at a more sensible cost.
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